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Hey team.
Last week I said I’d write again if stuff happens.
I think it’s fair to say: stuff is going to happen.
Christmas may be just round the corner, but Boris Johnson is cracking on with plans to shake up government and—you guessed it—get Brexit done.
Below is the rough plan for this week. But three other questions need answering:
What sort of Brexit will we get?
One theory is Johnson’s new majority allows him to pursue a softer Brexit, because he no longer has to answer to the hard right in his party. In a sense it’s a pragmatic move because the economic impact would be smaller.
But today’s Sunday Times cites a former Downing Street aide who says the prime mininster will reject close alignment with EU regulations. That gives Britain more freedom to set its own rules.
So which will it be? We put the question to Alan Wager from the UK in a Changing Europe on Friday’s Bloomberg Westminster.
Who will be Labour’s next leader?
Labour has a lot of rebuilding to do if it’s going to win back voters in its heartlands. No one has announced their candidacy yet, but here are some of the names floating around:
Will the United Kingdom stay united?
The SNP was the other big success story of election night.
That fuels their argument for a second Scottish independence referendum. But they need permission from Westminster first, and Michael Gove has reiterated that this won’t happen. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon says she’ll make her case this week for a “transfer of power” to let the Scottish parliament organise one.
The issue will likely become an increasingly big thorn in Johnson’s side. There’s a stronger chance Scotland could vote for independence in a second referendum because of Brexit, and no prime minister leading a unionist party wants that happening on their watch.
But it’s not just Scotland. Pro-reunification parties now hold the majority of seats in Northern Ireland. The leader of the Alliance Party has said pressure for a referendum there is “almost inevitable” if there’s a hard Brexit.
Have a great week. In the mean time you can join the conversation on the Facebook group, tweet me, or just reply to this email.
Sebastian (@sebastiansalek)
Possible reshuffle
Three ministers need replacing: Nicky Morgan, former culture secretary who stood down before the election, Alun Cairns, who resigned as Welsh secretary at the start of the campaign, and Zac Goldsmith, an environment minister who lost his seat. Other names who reportedly could be demoted include Jacob Rees-Mogg (leader of the House of Commons), Andrea Leadsom (business secretary), Theresa Villiers (environment secretary) and Liz Truss (international trade secretary).
Election of Commons Speaker
Lindsay Hoyle was picked last month, but because this is a new parliament he needs to be re-elected. Should be uncontroversial.
Swearing in of MPs
The order is: Speaker, Father of the House, members of the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet, other privy counsellors and other Ministers, then other MPs by length of service. Continues Wednesday and Thursday.
No notable events
State opening of Parliament
The government lays out its plan in another Queen’s Speech. It’ll probably be a slimmed down affair, with less of the usual pomp and circumstance. Michael Gove has said it’ll include a commitment to boost NHS spending by £33.9 billion by 2023-24.
Possible introduction of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill
The government’s flagship Brexit bill could return to the Commons. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Rishi Sunak has said the government wants to do this as soon as possible, ideally before Christmas.
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