Strikes, Inflation and the Law: Britain’s Winter of Discontent

Why Are Unions Striking?

Inflation exceeded 11 per cent in October 2022, driven by post‑Covid disruption, soaring energy prices and the fallout from Truss‑era economic instability. According to TUC policy officer Sian Elliot, workers are experiencing “the deepest and longest wage squeeze in 200 years”.

Public sector workers have endured 13 years of pay restraint. Chronic understaffing, stagnant wages and rising workloads have intensified pressure. Pay is not keeping pace with inflation, leaving many workers worse off in real terms.

How Is the Government Responding?

Matching inflation across the public sector would cost around £18 billion, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The government argues this is unaffordable and would fuel inflation. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warns of an “inflationary spiral”.

However, economists such as Professor Swati Dhingra of the Bank of England dispute this. She argues wage increases are not driving inflation, instead pointing to Brexit and the global energy crisis.

Pay review bodies under scrutiny

The government insists it will follow recommendations from independent pay review bodies. Business Secretary Grant Shapps claims “we are opening our books” to ensure transparency.

Union leaders disagree. RCN general secretary Pat Cullen argues the bodies are “not independent”, stating that evidence submitted “year after year” is ignored. Prime Minister Sunak maintains the government wants an “honest, grown‑up conversation about what is affordable”, inviting union leaders to talks beginning 9 January.

The Push for New Anti‑Strike Laws

Tensions escalated after Sunak signalled imminent legislation enforcing minimum service levels across key public sectors, including:

• Rail
• Health
• Education
• Fire
• Border security
• Nuclear

Under the proposals, strikes would be unlawful if unions failed to provide an agreed minimum level of service. Employers could sue unions and dismiss employees who refuse to work.

Stricter penalties

Legislation introduced in July 2022 increased the maximum damages courts can award against unions for unlawful strikes from £250,000 to £1 million. Employers may now hire agency workers to replace striking staff, a practice previously prohibited.

Unions are expected to challenge the laws, describing them as undemocratic. Labour leader Keir Starmer has indicated his party would repeal anti‑strike legislation if elected.

What Is the Current Law on Strikes?

Under the Trade Union Act 2016, lawful industrial action requires:

• A postal ballot
• At least 50 per cent turnout
• Two weeks’ notice to employers
• Action within six months of the ballot

The Act amended the Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act 1992 and was widely criticised. Oxford labour law professor Alan Bogg described it as authoritarian.

What Will Change?

Legislation limiting strike disruption is expected to be introduced in the week commencing 9 January. However, due to parliamentary timelines, it will not affect current strikes.

Grant Shapps emphasised that although the government will introduce laws “quickly into Parliament”, their progress depends on parliamentary procedure.

Minimum service levels first

Minimum service legislation is likely to be prioritised because it appeared in the 2019 Conservative Party Manifesto. Under the Salisbury Convention, the House of Lords does not block manifesto commitments. A 20 per cent minimum workforce level has been suggested.

More severe restrictions risk intensifying strikes and have been described as “very draconian” by senior government figures.

European comparisons

Sunak and Shapps argue the UK is aligning with European norms, citing France, Germany, Italy and Spain, all of which have minimum service requirements. Shapps also notes that the International Labour Organisation supports minimum safety levels.

Union leaders remain unconvinced. RMT general secretary Mick Lynch argues the laws are “an attack on human rights and civil liberties”, and claims the countries cited do not enforce their legislation in the same way.

A New Winter of Discontent?

Some outlets have labelled the current wave of strikes a “winter of discontent”, recalling 1978‑79. Although both periods were triggered by international energy crises, the scale differs. In September 1979 alone, 12 million working days were lost to industrial action.

Like Thatcher, Sunak appears to favour tightening strike laws. Critics argue this risks strangling the voices unions represent. With inflation high, wages stagnant and public services strained, Britain’s industrial unrest is unlikely to fade soon.